Leautaud asked:

I have something in my mind that's troubling me. Somehow I have managed to see that
generalizations are not correct, since we know nothing about the universe and there could be
something out there that would make that generalization incorrect. I don't know, but I strongly believe
that generalizations are a major problem in people's way of thinking. What's your opinion about this?

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What you have identified is more commonly known (in philosophical circles at least) as "The Problem
of Induction". An inductive conclusion is a generalization from a sequence of observed particulars to a
general conclusion. The "Problem of Induction" is that the truth of such conclusions can only be
demonstrated Inductively. This can be considered either as arguing in circles, or "bootstrapping" —
depending on how sceptical you are feeling.

For example — I see a swan and it is white. I wander about my environment and observe that all the
swans that I see are white. After compiling what I feel is adequate evidence to justify the conclusion I
generalize to the inductive conclusion that "All swans are white". This, of course, is incorrect. My
conclusion will be invalidated the first time I encounter a black Australian swan.

When one employs induction to reach such generalizations, one must keep in mind that the
conclusion reached is only probably true, and not absolutely true. The degree of confidence one can
have in the conclusion depends on the nature of the evidence supporting the conclusion. The more
the evidence, the more detailed the understanding of the causations involved, the more confidence
one can have in the truth of the conclusions. But inductive conclusions are thereby unlike "religious"
truths that are taken to be absolutely, totally, and unchallengeably true.

On the other hand, all statements about the nature of Reality are Inductive conclusions. Far from
being a major problem in people's way of thinking, Inductive Reasoning is an essential part of how we
deal with the slings and arrows of daily life. Do you set the alarm clock to wake you on time tomorrow
morning? Do you turn the steering wheel left (rather than right) when you want to make a left turn? Do
you eagerly anticipate that mouth-wateringly delicious fork-full of (whatever) at dinner time? If you do
any of these things, then you are basing your actions (and your emotions) on the inductive
generalization that the future will be like the past, and that things will continue to work the way that
you have experienced them working in the past. That the sun will rise tomorrow (and the Universe will
not disappear in a puff of sub-quantum smoke) is an inductive generalization.

But I think I might know why you are arriving at your belief that such generalizations are a major
problem in people's thinking. Most people are brought up within an Authoritative social environment.
Parents, schools and most especially religious organizations are constantly bombarding the poor
student with messages such as — "Do what I tell you because I tell you", "Believe what I tell you
because I tell you", and most destructively "These are the Truths, and they are absolute!". As a result,
too many people begin to think that any statement that is accepted as "true" is "Truth Absolute". Too
many people forget the conditional on inductive generalizations — they are only probably true, are
always subject to revision and correction, and they are only as useful as the evidence that justifies
them.

Stuart Burns

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